Bad news may already be brewing for the Green Bay Packers before the 2026 season even begins.

According to schedule analyst Warren Sharp, the Packers are projected to face one of the tougher schedules in the NFL based on Vegas win totals — and for a team trying to chase the NFC North crown, that is far from ideal.

Using projected win totals from Las Vegas sportsbooks, Sharp created a strength-of-schedule ranking designed to measure how difficult each team’s upcoming path will be. Unlike traditional rankings based on last year’s records, this system factors in offseason changes such as free-agent additions, coaching changes, injuries, and roster improvements. The goal is to create a much more realistic projection of what teams will actually look like entering the new season.

And unfortunately for Green Bay, the numbers are not exactly encouraging.

The Packers currently sit in the bottom half of the league when it comes to schedule difficulty, meaning they are expected to face a tougher path than many NFC contenders. Even worse, division rival Detroit Lions reportedly landed the easiest projected schedule in the entire NFL.

That alone is frustrating enough for Packers fans.

But the problem goes deeper than that.

Green Bay is also dealing with the reality of moving from a third-place schedule to a second-place schedule after last season’s improvement. That means tougher opponents across the board and fewer “easy” matchups throughout the year. While the difference may not seem massive on paper, over the course of a 17-game season, those small scheduling changes can absolutely impact playoff races and division standings.

The NFC North itself is also becoming a complete gauntlet.

The Chicago Bears suddenly look much more dangerous after aggressively rebuilding around Caleb Williams. The Minnesota Vikings remain talented and unpredictable, while Detroit continues to look like one of the most complete rosters in football. Playing six divisional games against those teams alone creates a brutal challenge before even considering the rest of the schedule.

Despite the difficult outlook, there are still several massive matchups Packers fans should be excited about.

Green Bay will host powerhouse teams like the Buffalo Bills and longtime rival Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field, both of which could become major primetime games. Road matchups against the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots also stand out as some of the most intriguing games on the schedule.

Vegas currently projects the Packers at 10.5 wins for the season, putting them firmly in playoff contention — but also showing how narrow the margin for error could become if the tougher schedule lives up to expectations.

The biggest concern?

Green Bay no longer has the luxury of sneaking up on opponents.

Last season, the Packers benefited from a slightly easier schedule while developing younger talent. Now expectations are much higher, the competition is tougher, and every divisional matchup could carry massive playoff implications.

One thing is certain: if the Packers want to return to the top of the NFC North, they are going to have to earn it the hard way.